Mogadishu looms like Kabul Fallen:U.S. General Advocates for Puntland’s Capital Garowe is favor substitute

MOGADISHU, (Nomadicvoice) — As the African Union Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS) prepares to withdraw by the end of the year, Somalia stands at a critical crossroads reminiscent of Afghanistan’s recent turmoil. General Michael Langley of U.S. Africa Command (AFRICOM) has voiced both concerns and hopes for the country’s future, emphasizing the unique position of Puntland in potentially averting a crisis.

Puntland state is situated in northeastern Somalia, has consistently maintained its security without the presence of ATMIS troops, unlike other states reliant on African Union forces. This distinction could be pivotal as Somalia braces for the departure of international troops, raising fears of a potential resurgence of the militant group Al-Shabab.

In a recent virtual press briefing, General Langley underscored the threat posed by Al-Shabab, which seeks to exploit any security vacuum left by the withdrawing forces. However, he expressed optimism that the Somali Federal Government is aware of these threats and is taking steps to bolster its defenses. “Amidst any ongoing ATMIS drawdown, Al-Shabab is looking to exploit any resultant security vacuum through attacks,” Langley noted. “The Somali National Army realizes that and they’re shoring up their defenses to be able to take that amidst some of the transition or transfer of different bases.”

Historical precedents highlight Puntland’s capability to contribute significantly to national security. In 2006, when the Islamic Court Unions invaded southern Somalia, then-President of Puntland Abdullahi Yusuf Ahmed mobilized the Puntland Armed Forces, including the Puntland Dervish Force and the Puntland Security Force, to liberate southern Somalia from Al Qaeda-backed militants. This successful military campaign underscored Puntland’s strategic importance and operational effectiveness.

During his recent visit to Somalia, Gen. Langley met with Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud to discuss a “whole-of-government” approach to combating Al-Shabab and ensuring stability post-ATMIS withdrawal. Langley emphasized the need for unity and a comprehensive strategy to prevent a relapse into extremist control.

However, there are growing concerns about the federal government’s focus. Opposotions argued that President HSM administration has miscalculated by viewing Somaliland and Puntland as threats to Mogadishu’s interests rather than focusing on the imminent danger posed by Al-Shabab. This miscalculation, they warn, could inadvertently facilitate Al-Shabab’s resurgence.

Puntland’s self-reliance sets it apart from other Somali states. Unlike many areas dependent on international aid, Puntland sustains itself through local tax collection. This economic stability, coupled with a relatively peaceful environment, positions Puntland as a potential cornerstone for national stability should Mogadishu fall into chaos.

General Langley suggested that in the event of Mogadishu falling to Al-Shabab, the international community might consider shifting its base of operations to Garowe, Puntland’s capital, which enjoys higher relative peace than most southern and central cities.

As the deadline for ATMIS withdrawal approaches, Somalia’s path forward remains uncertain. The federal government faces the daunting task of maintaining stability and preventing Al-Shabab from exploiting the transition. Puntland’s role could prove crucial in these efforts, potentially offering a model of resilience and self-sufficiency amid the nation’s challenges.

For now, the international community watches closely, hoping that Somalia can navigate this critical juncture without succumbing to the extremist forces that have long plagued the region.