Red Sea Geopolitics: Tensions, Conflicts, and Global Implications

Red Sea Geopolitics: Tensions, Conflicts, and Global Implications

The Red Sea have become a focal point of concern due to the heightened activities of the Houthi forces, particularly in their capture and arson of ships traversing the Red Sea route to Israel. The Houthi forces, aligned with Iran, have issued demands for Israel to permit humanitarian aid into Gaza, which has been grappling with over two months of Israeli siege and bombardment. This development holds significant implications for the security of the Red Sea and global financial stability, introducing a new layer of instability into an already strained world economy grappling with escalating geopolitical tensions.

The Red Sea serves as a vital artery for the world economy, with more than 10% of global cargo passing through its waters annually. This maritime route encompasses the Suez Canal, linking the Mediterranean Sea to the Strait of Bab al-Mandab, which in turn connects it to the Indian Ocean. The strategic importance of this maritime corridor cannot be overstated, as it facilitates the seamless flow of goods and trade between major regions.

Given the centrality of the Red Sea route to international trade, any disruption in its normal functioning has far-reaching consequences. This emerging scenario underscores the pressing need for diplomatic efforts to address the root causes of conflict in the region and to ensure the security of crucial maritime passages that underpin the global economy. As the Red Sea remains a vital artery for international commerce, safeguarding its stability is imperative for maintaining the equilibrium of the world economy amidst the current geopolitical challenges.

Beyond the heightened tension in the Red Sea instigated by the Houthi group, it is crucial to delve into the emerging discord among neighboring Red Sea countries and its potential ramifications for global peace and security.

Ethiopia is currently facing a complex and alarming situation marked by heightened tensions with neighboring countries following Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s claim of access to the Red Sea. Eritrea, Djibouti, and Somalia have responded to this claim, with Eritrea reportedly mobilizing its military towards the Ethiopian border. The rhetoric between Ethiopia and Eritrea has intensified, raising concerns about potential military escalation.

Abiy Ahmed’s intentions regarding which port he plans to capture remain unclear, contributing to the overall uncertainty surrounding the situation. There are indications that he may be considering the annexation of the Zaila port in Somaliland, viewing it as a potentially easier target due to the absence of formidable resistance forces to protect the port from Ethiopian invasion. However, given Ethiopia’s economic challenges and the underdeveloped infrastructure of the Zaila port, such a move would likely prove impractical. Another port under consideration is the Assab port in Eritrea, which is relatively developed but poses a more challenging prospect due to the presence of Eritrean defence forces.

Reports suggest a concerning strategy involving the creation of a proxy war among Somali clans in Somaliland, particularly targeting the Issa and Gadabursi communities, with the objective of capitalizing on the resulting conflict. Abiy has reportedly initiated efforts to influence Somali clans by dispatching Oromo elders (Abagada) to convey a narrative asserting that Oromo is part of the Dir Somali major clan, and that the ownership of the land and sea is shared. This suggests that the Ethiopian government is employing a traditional approach to penetrate Somali communities and secure access to the Red Sea.

Djibouti is closely monitoring the developments in Zaila, influenced by the historical significance it attributes to the region. The inhabitants of Zaila, situated in the Awdal region, predominantly belong to the Issa clan. This alignment with the clan of Ismael Omar Guelleh, the President of Djibouti, and Ethiopia’s ambitious plan to Zaila port enhances Djibouti’s strategic interest in the region.

Leaked information suggests that during the meeting held on December 28 to 29, 2023 between Somalia and Somaliland, hosted by Djibouti government, among the other things discussions centered on the ongoing tensions in the Red Sea. Allegedly, there was agreement that the most effective way to dissuade the Ethiopian government from potentially invading Zaila port would be to entrust the port to the Djibouti government. The proposal involves Djibouti taking on the responsibility of developing and managing the port, thereby mitigating the perceived threat, and addressing the current Red Sea geopolitical concerns.

Internally, Ethiopia is grappling with escalating conflicts. Amhara Fano fighters are engaged in intense clashes with the federal government, with the situation spiraling out of control. The federal government’s underestimation of Fano’s capabilities has exacerbated the internal strife. Additionally, the Oromo Liberation Army (OLA) poses a significant challenge in thesouth and western part of Oromia. Recent negotiations between the federal government and OLA in Tanzania have failed, further complicating the internal dynamics.

The Tigray region is currently facing a dire situation as the regional government declares a state of disaster emergency, citing a severe famine. This declaration compounds the existing challenges, giving rise to a humanitarian crisis that heightens concerns for the well-being of the population. Urgent action is imperative to address the current humanitarian catastrophe and ensure the full implementation of the Pretoria agreement. Failure to do so may lead to undesirable outcomes, with the Tigray people possibly considering cooperation and alignment with the Amhara cause.

Ethiopia is currently grappling with a severe economic crisis and instability, primarily exacerbated by the prolonged conflict initiated by the federal government against its own people and government-sponsored ethnic conflicts. The country’s isolation from the global arena, both economically and diplomatically, has further worsened the situation. The actions taken by the US government, such as halting the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) in response to their pro-war policy, have had a significant impact on Ethiopia’s economy. Notably, Ethiopia recently became Africa’s third defaulter after failing to make a $33 million “coupon” payment on its only international government bond. The federal government’s incapacity to settle this substantial debt, coupled with the departure of major foreign companies, contributes significantly to the overall economic instability. The cumulative effect of internal conflicts, a strained relationship with neighboring countries, inadequate diplomatic efforts, economic challenges, and the looming external threat, particularly from Eritrea, raises concerns about the potential collapse of the federal government under the weight of these mounting pressures.

In conclusion, the heightened tensions, and multifaceted challenges in the Red Sea region, particularly driven by the activities of the Houthi forces, underscore the urgent need for diplomatic interventions to address conflict root causes and ensure the security of vital maritime passages crucial to the global economy. The emerging discord among neighboring Red Sea countries, exemplified by Ethiopia’s complex situation and its potential spillover effects, further emphasizes the delicate geopolitical landscape. Internally, Ethiopia grapples with escalating conflicts, a dire humanitarian crisis in most regions including Tigray, and severe economic instability exacerbated by isolation and external pressures. The convergence of these challenges paints a grim picture, necessitating effective diplomatic efforts, conflict resolution, and international intervention to navigate this critical juncture and avert further escalation in both regional and global implications.

By Hassen Tahir Said