Unraveling the Intricacies Behind Somaliland’s MOU with Ethiopia

Unraveling the Intricacies Behind Somaliland’s MOU with Ethiopia

President Muse Bihi Abdi’s recent signing of a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with the Ethiopian government has stirred significant speculation, as observers attempt to decipher the motives and implications of this move. The background reveals a complex interplay of geopolitical ambitions and territorial disputes.

From the outset, it is crucial to acknowledge Ethiopia’s longstanding quest for sea access, a goal that Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed has openly pursued through negotiations or, if necessary, by force. The genesis of this ambition unfolds through a multi-phased strategy that began with territorial disputes in the Somali region’s Tuli-Guleed woreda.

Abiy’s initial attempt to create the Oromia region bordering Somaliland was met with fierce resistance from the Geri residents of Tuli-Guled, thwarting the project’s realization. Undeterred, the Ethiopian government shifted its focus to a second phase, involving negotiations with the Gadabursi clan in Awdal region.

Commencing few years ago, secret discussions unfolded between Gadabursi elites and Ethiopian authorities. The objective was to annex Awdal from Somaliland, creating an autonomous Ethiopian region with Gadabursi support and providing Ethiopia with coveted sea access. To cement this plan, a Gadabursi diaspora delegation, including elders, journeyed to Addis Ababa, culminating in an agreement signed in the presence of Ethiopian Minister Data by the name of Saharla Abdulahi from the Gadabursi clan.

However, the agreement’s lack of legal grounding and practical implementation challenges prompted the Ethiopian government to adopt a different approach. The Gadabursi clan was allegedly tasked with instigating conflict with the Issa clan in Awdal, creating a pretext for Ethiopian intervention and the annexation of coastal territories like Zayla and Lugahaya.

The Issa clan, discerning the potential threat to their land, convened a grand meeting to unequivocally reject any sale or cession of their territory to Ethiopia. In response to the perceived collaboration between Gadabursi and Ethiopia, the Issa clan sent a strong indirect message to Gadabursi, urging them to cease illegal activities. Simultaneously, a direct appeal was made to the Somaliland government to address systemic discrimination against the Issa and reclaim their land from illegal settlers.

As the Ethiopian government reassessed the viability of the Gadabursi plan, it became evident that the envisioned sea access through Awdal would not yield successful results. Consequently, the Ethiopian government distanced itself from the Gadabursi movement and strategically invoked ethnic considerations, emphasizing the Kush family ties and Oromo-Dir kinship connections. Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed took the unconventional step of dispatching Oromo elders (Abagada) with a message aimed at convincing Somalis that Oromo is an integral part of the larger Dir Somali clan. During their meeting with Somaliland officials, the Oromo elders invoked blessings in the Oromo language, employing the popular saying “lafti-nagaya,” signifying peace on earth. Subsequently, the Oromo elders traveled to Djibouti, where they were received by IGAD Secretary general Workineh Gebehu, an Oromo himself and a key proponent of the Oromuma project. Amidst these developments, President Muse Bihi Abdi found himself apprehensive about his position, especially following military setbacks in the Goja-Ade battle of the SSC-Khatumo conflict and the Ethiopian government’s clandestine negotiations with other clan leaders for sea access. These circumstances likely compelled him to sign the MoU with Ethiopia, driven by a desire to forestall a conflict reminiscent of past disputes such as the SSC-Khatumo conflict.

The curious aspect of this narrative is the apparent transformation of the Gadabursi, who were engaged in secret negotiations to cede Awdal to Ethiopia, into vocal defenders of Somalia’s sovereignty and territorial integrity. The sudden change in stance by the Gadabursi clan in Somalia raises critical questions about their motivations and loyalties, highlighting the intricate and dynamic nature of Somali clan politics. It is crucial to discern between those who may be considered traitors to their land and people and those who remain loyal. Consequently, should the Federal Government of Somalia contemplate declaring a new administration for the Awadal region, utmost caution must be exercised. Granting leadership to the loyal Issa community would be imperative to ensure stability and fidelity to the interests of the region and its inhabitants.